SubModel Example: Probabilistic Optimization

Another common use of SubModels is to optimize a probabilistic model.  If you wish to optimize a probabilistic (uncertain) system, the objective function to be optimized cannot be a single deterministic output.  Rather, it must be a statistic.  That is, if X was an output of a probabilistic model (and hence was output as a probability distribution), optimizing X itself would be meaningless.  Rather, you would need to optimize a particular statistic (e.g., the mean or 50th percentile) of the output X.

With SubModels, this is accomplished by inserting a SubModel (e.g., a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation) within an outer model (e.g., a static optimization).

Example model ProbabilisticOptimization.gsm in the General Examples/SubModel folder in your GoldSim directory (accessed by selecting File | Open Example... from the main menu) provides a simple illustration of such an application. In this model, the SubModel is a Monte Carlo simulation containing a single Stochastic.  The outer model is an optimization.  The variable being optimized is a function of another element in the outer model and a statistic (the 95th percentile) of the Stochastic in the SubModel.

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