Modeling Aging Chains Using a Series of Material Delays

When modeling an aging chain consisting of specific age groups (e.g., 0 – 1 years, 1 – 2 years, etc.), it is often most appropriate to model the chain using a series of Material Delays.

Each Delay has a fixed delay time (with no dispersion) corresponding to the age cohort (e.g., 1 year).  As such, the residence time in the cohort does not represent an average; it is an exact time required to “transit” the cohort.  The structure of the model would typically look something like this:

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Note that each Delay does not flow into the next Delay in the series.  Rather, it flows through a Splitter, so that losses (e.g., due to deaths) can be accounted for prior to graduating to the next cohort. Of course, there could also be additional flows into and out of a cohort (due to immigration and emigration). The Material Delay dialog for a typical cohort for this simple would look like this:

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An example file which illustrate how aging chains can be modeled using a series of Material Delays (AgingChain.gsm) can be found in the General Examples folder in your GoldSim directory (accessed by selecting File | Open Example... from the main menu).

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